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I don't see anything, but I see with my ears," said Alshogre, who at age 17 moved among nearly 10 detention facilities in Syria for two years before he was taken to Saydnaya. Alshogre survived nine months in the prison, paying his way out in 2015 a common practice. He suffered from tuberculosis and his weight fell to 35 kilograms (77 pounds). Two cousins detained with him in western Syria didn't survive, dying a year apart in a military intelligence detention facility. The younger one died in Alshogre's arms, deprived of food and so weak he was unable to walk to the bathroom on his own. Still, Alshogre said nothing could have prepared him for Saydnaya. At one point, Alshogre was called out by his guards "for execution," he said. He was brought before a military trial and told not to raise his gaze at the judge, who asked him how many soldiers he had killed. When he said none, the judge spared him. Death in Saydnaya was always present, "like the air," Alshogre said.
The last three times that the Fed had conducted a rate tightening cycle (1986-1989, 1994-2000 and 2004-2006), the increases in rates averaged 388 basis points. But those moves upward occurred when QE did not exist and when forward guidance was hardly a factor (the Fed only started doing press conferences in the last few years). So the tightening that has occurred to the Shadow Rate in the last year is already 58% of the size of the average of the last three tightening cycles. Created by next page Euro Pacific Capital with Data from Bloomberg If the Fed does as it has suggested it will, and takes fed funds up to 2.6% by the end of 2017 (which is the Feds own median forecast), then the total effective move (that includes the tightening of the Shadow Rate) would be a tightening of 559 basis points, well larger than ชุด ว่า ย น้ํา วิน เท จ เต็มตัว the average of the last three tightening cycles. Does anyone really believe that our fragile and slowing economy can deal with that kind of headwind? Generally, the Fed tends to wait until the economy is on solid footing before tightening. For instance, in the 12 months prior to the 390 basis point tightening that occurred between 1986-1989, real GDP was 3.2%. GDP was 2.65% in 1993, the year before a six-year tightening cycle raised rates by 350 basis points. GDP was a solid 4.3% in 2003, the year before Alan Greenspan began raising rates in 2004, a move that took up fed funds by 425 basis points. But current GDP, which is somewhere around 2.0% over the past four quarters, is not nearly as robust. (Bureau of Economic Analysis) But whats more concerning is the magnitude of the easing cycle that has gotten us to this point.
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